{"id":986,"date":"2009-04-18T00:00:24","date_gmt":"2009-04-18T04:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.synapse9.com\/signals\/?p=986"},"modified":"2009-04-18T00:00:24","modified_gmt":"2009-04-18T04:00:24","slug":"unlike-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/unlike-models\/","title":{"rendered":"Unlike models"},"content":{"rendered":"

On a Global Foresight<\/strong> thread Tom Abeles asked if scientific models, based on a reliable \u201cbandwidth\u201d for natural systems, might somehow have predictive properties. \u00a0 He noted:<\/p>\n

The problem we have is exemplified by the poem, “The Theory that Jack built” which was published in an insightful set of \u201cnonsense\u201d poems called The Space Child\u2019s Mother Goose<\/strong>: This is the theory that Jack built; this is the flaw, this is the constant covering the flaw; this is the \u201cx\u201d justifying the constant. . . und so weiter.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n

Tom,<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a great insight and question. Part of the paradox seems to be in the word \u201clike\u201d. It is exactly models made \u201clike\u201d the ones for deterministic systems that don\u2019t work well at all to\u00a0imitate\u00a0accumulatively self-organizing systems.<\/p>\n

For new \u201cunlike\u201d models to still be useful, I think we need to no longer use models only as something we build to independently represent nature. I think we also need to use models for the opposite,<\/p>\n

learning how to independently observe how individual systems in nature actually behave.<\/h3>\n

That produces predictive questions rather than answers, prompting where to look for answers regarding the individual behaviors of the well organized but non-deterministic<\/em> world. Yes, it also sort of reverses the basic intent of science in a way, i.e. no longer treating the purpose of research as creating an artificial world made “like”<\/em> the real one.<\/p>\n

It has the potential to convert our large investment in deterministic science to shed more light on the kinds of new questions needed to explore the natural systems that display variable organization.<\/p>\n

How observed \u201claws\u201d of regular accumulative change can prompt a \u201cchange in laws\u201d, with rules switching from one direction to another, is one of those.<\/p>\n

Say you have a system in which the parts all need to grow to survive, and then find the system as a whole meeting constraints. How the parts will then react to the change in environment is not something that any model of their prior cooperative growth before meeting limits can offer.<\/p>\n

Models don\u2019t show the limits of the system they are models of,
\nor it\u2019s future states, just it\u2019s past state.<\/h3>\n

A way to use that flaw is to consider systems as locally adapting to their environment as it changes, reacting on their own. \u00a0That would treat them as hypothetically changing within<\/em> the deterministic limits offer a \u201cbandwidth\u201d for their individual behaviors.<\/p>\n

As they approach or cross those limits in a progressive way, it prompts useful new questions. As often:<\/p>\n

knowing what new questions are coming
\nwill expose a few that can be answered.<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On a Global Foresight thread Tom Abeles asked if scientific models, based on a reliable \u201cbandwidth\u201d for natural systems, might somehow have predictive properties. \u00a0 He noted: The problem we have is exemplified by the poem, “The Theory that Jack built” which was published in an insightful set of \u201cnonsense\u201d poems called The Space Child\u2019s … Continue reading Unlike models<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-econn","category-theory"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=986"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/986\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}