{"id":1078,"date":"2009-06-07T00:00:41","date_gmt":"2009-06-07T04:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.synapse9.com\/signals\/?p=1078"},"modified":"2009-06-07T00:00:41","modified_gmt":"2009-06-07T04:00:41","slug":"now-real-steering-at-the-tipping-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/now-real-steering-at-the-tipping-points\/","title":{"rendered":"Now real steering at the tipping points\u2026!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Emily Spence had sent me a PNAS paper on the \u201cTipping elements in the earth\u2019s climate system<\/a>\u201d and \u201cIs Economic Growth a Delusion<\/a>\u201d by Steven Stoll<\/p>\n

\n

Emily,<\/p>\n

Thanks much again.\u00a0\u00a0 The PNAS paper on tipping elements, though as good as I\u2019ve seen from established scientists, is still a bit flimsy relative to what you could say. \u00a0 You could consider the evolving physical systems of the earth as developmental processes, with organization of their own that can be destabilized themselves, rather than as mathematical models.<\/p>\n

\"\"
No contest about the balance at present...<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Models just don\u2019t have many of the behaviors that natural systems do. \u00a0They use controlled variable theory to represent distributed uncontrolled systems with independently changing and reacting parts\u2026<\/p>\n

Their definition of \u2018tipping point\u2019 shows an effort to address the subject, but ends up being a reiteration of the belief which was what got us in such trouble. \u00a0That’s the idea that nature is an equation.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 I wish these kinds of people would talk to me!!<\/p>\n

The strong empirical evidence of the type of hazardous tipping point approaching is persistent growth of whatever system you\u2019re discussing.\u00a0 That is primary evidence the system will create conditions to destabilize its own growth process.<\/p>\n

That principle is not understandable until you think of systems as physical things having growth as their own process of organizational development. \u00a0Growth is the development of the system whose behaviors are the subject, rather than equations.<\/p>\n

Equations are definitions and have no organization of independent complex parts and could not destabilize themselves.\u00a0\u00a0 Only physical systems do.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Considered as physical things you can realize why any growth system is a \u2018machine\u2019 for multiplying changes in the environment that will create conditions that upset itself.<\/p>\n

Economic growth then, both is and is not a delusion.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Every kind of organized system begins with it, and then the growth process upsets itself in one of a variety of possible ways.<\/p>\n

Whether small things might alter how the growth system upsets itself, to either form a mature and sustainable system or to collapse in a pile of dust (or various similar ways or in-between) is the question. \u00a0 \u00a0It\u2019s not certain at that point of upset whether small things could tip the evolution of the system in different directions, like toward exhaustion or stability.<\/p>\n

That is just the usual time when those possibilities open up if they are going to.\u00a0\u00a0 That\u2019s when such windows of opportunity for redirecting the system appear.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a little like how space craft are guided using gravitation neutral points, called Lagrange points where the pull of gravity in different directions cancels out, making changes of orbital direction at those points very easy.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0L1 and L2 are the famous ones [http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Lagrangian_point].<\/p>\n

For the growth of systems, the point where the system of compound growth destabilizes, is where some of the bonds between the parts that define the system are broken and others are reinforced. \u00a0 It’s a\u00a0developmental\u00a0“phase change” in which relationships are pulled apart, rather different, but conceptually a bit like chromosome mitosis in cell division.<\/p>\n

In concept the parts are free to reorganize at that \u2018tipping moment\u2019 for reorganization when the rules of the system change.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0The big one we are now at or near, of course, is the destabilization of the whole growth mechanism \u00a0of modern civilization. \u00a0Most people who see it see it as very likely to be disorderly.<\/p>\n

The economy has been steadily working itself up to this point of profound uncertainty about its future, by steadily getting bigger by ever bigger and faster steps of change. \u00a0Historically its been for at least 500 years, and maybe a 1000, with a period of more rapid growth starting around 1780.<\/p>\n

Modern civilization is, in my view, what grew out of the remains of the Roman empire once \u2018the dust settled\u2019 from its failure.\u00a0\u00a0 Here\u2019s a digest of the whole system \u00a0development curves I think help put that into context.<\/p>\n

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World economic history in a snap-shot<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Steven Stoll is accurately summarizing what I think also agrees with Herman Daly, Bill McKibben, James Speth and I all see as some of the symptoms of the deeper problem our point in history represents.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0I also see a couple levels more, I believe, into both the problems and the solutions.<\/p>\n

The most “wicked” part of the problem they sort of miss, is that our economy is truly designed for maximizing its rate of growth. \u00a0How the economy works is to do that by maximizing the efficiency at which we consume usable and affordable\u00a0resources, and so a humanity wide effort to exhaust them as fast as humanly possible. \u00a0We’re accomplishing that, crippling our ability to invest in sustainable systems in the process.<\/p>\n

There is also a vastly superior way to respond to this tipping moment than what they generally recommend. \u00a0 The first step is recognizing that our\u00a0physical exponential growth has ended as a sustainable process, and culturally we find ourselves with no other plan.<\/p>\n

What others mostly recommend is to keep capitalism the way it is, …but just make it a zero sum game using constraints on it’s ability to operate freely.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0In cultural terms it doesn’t immediately seem like it, a dreamy world\u00a0control\u00a0solution, but unavoidably becomes a pure and simple plan to institute feudalism.<\/p>\n

What you’d have is increasingly intense internal competition and conflict due to all the parts of the system continuing to try to multiply, because how capitalism manages money, its “information sub-system”.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0I don\u2019t recommend it.\u00a0 \u00a0It requires someone to have absolute power to make it stable, and no one including themselves are ready for King Herman, king Bill or king Gustav.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0It would be both ill-mannered and definitely not work as intended.<\/p>\n

Our entire problem with the earth is believing that we were \u201cgiven\u201d our powers of magical thinking to have dominion over the earth.\u00a0 \u00a0That\u2019s the fools notion we need to get rid of.<\/p>\n

On a planet that works only because independent things take care of themselves, it\u2019s a mistake.<\/h3>\n

Trying to control uncontrolled systems just doesn\u2019t work, anyway, no matter how hopeful the intent.<\/p>\n

The other choice seems to be for people to discover now is the time to switch from using their wealth to multiply our own wealth. \u00a0It’s done by retaining the earnings from investments for\u00a0multiplying\u00a0investments, and so amassing ever growing privilege and power.<\/p>\n

Everyone with a decent income on earth is actually trying to do that now. Doing it all together is in the process of collapsing our whole economic environment,\u00a0perhaps even\u00a0permanently. \u00a0So, we could think of doing something more useful and satisfying to do.<\/p>\n

That switch in purpose to use returns on investments for “doing good” with rather than “taking more” ,
\nwould make money flow to what people VALUE rather than concentrating power.<\/h3>\n

The alternative is to spend the same earnings on *something else* of value.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 That switch in the purpose of having returns on investments, to use them for “doing good” with rather than “taking more”, would make money flow to what people VALUE rather than concentrating power. \u00a0All the sustainability projects that deserve it would get the funding, instead of money going into pumping up ever higher stakes games for using up the earth\u2026<\/p>\n

Well, or at least that\u2019s what it sure looks like to me!! \u00a0;-)<\/p>\n

Best,<\/p>\n

Phil Henshaw\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00b8\u00b8\u00b8\u00b8.\u00b7\u00b4 \u00af `\u00b7.\u00b8\u00b8\u00b8\u00b8
\nNY NY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 www.synapse9.com<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emily Spence had sent me a PNAS paper on the \u201cTipping elements in the earth\u2019s climate system\u201d and \u201cIs Economic Growth a Delusion\u201d by Steven Stoll Emily, Thanks much again.\u00a0\u00a0 The PNAS paper on tipping elements, though as good as I\u2019ve seen from established scientists, is still a bit flimsy relative to what you could … Continue reading Now real steering at the tipping points\u2026!<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[6,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mail","category-econn"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1078"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1078\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/synapse9.com\/signals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}