The
curve of
murder rates in New York State, from the 1960 to 2000 shows the great US
crime wave, a little more dramatic in New York than elsewhere. Notice the shape
of the sudden decline at the end. It's an exponential decay curve, that has
continued since. We knew the collapse of the crime rates was mysterious. This is
why. Practically the only thing that could explain sudden collapse and decay of
crime rates is if the crime culture was a living thing, and it died. Could that
be? Yes, sure, think of the historic rise and fall of the crime rate as
representing a short lived culture. It could die for the same reason the Soviet
Union collapsed and died, loosing it's appeal to those involved. With the crime
wave I think it was the crack cocaine that finally did it. By the 90’s the
ghetto anger of the 60's was no longer fresh, there were limited but real gains
in civil rights and economic opportunity to replace it, and crack was really
messing up the drug lords' lives, all combining to make the criminal lifestyle
stop being cool.
To my surprise after posting the above (slightly edited
now) I discovered the NY Times had an excellent Week In Review piece on the very
subject, “Where Killers are Out of Style”. And I had a chance to discuss it at
length with my criminologist friend John. He doesn’t see cohesive
self-organizing natural systems 'lurking' behind everything that happens the way
I do, but did admit that there was also an unexplained resurgence of New York
City as a whole, highlighted by the rejuvenation of Times Square and the run up
to the high tech. boom, at about the same time.
I don’t think any of these kinds of things are run from
the mayor’s office, as Guiliani claimed over and over. Yes, the mayor did add
police and got them back in the neighborhoods and to tend to quality of life
crimes etc. That’s good, but it was in concert with a wave of good things
happening, and crime didn’t decline proportionately, but collapsed, and
nationwide, catching absolutely everybody off guard! I think these short and
long surges and flows of culture display classic natural open system behavior,
like ecology, like storms and weather, They are much better treated as
independently evolving living things in their own right. They just don't have a
spokesperson. It definitely adds to the intrigue that they’re made from us but
we can be quite unaware of them, act dynamically as wholes, but have no fixed
parts or visible structures.
It's hard to read culture without bias of course. I don't
have it documented, but in all the articles I've read about this, including this
one, I don't think I've read any observations on what happened from those most
involved. That's very odd. They surely must have noticed something being
different, with the crime rate dropping by 2/3! ..It's on my list to find
some people to ask. (see Oct 22, 05
follow-up on this)