8/27/06
Stan
> Phil –
> >Stan,
> >> Phil –
> >> >Stan,
…..
> >> >PH: Or… accumulating and then pealing off in sheets like the
> >> >community bulletin boards on campus.
> >>The pealing off would obviate the information overload. No.
> >
> >Well, except for the bales of urgent notices that never got
> >pinned up
> >in the first place, just sent directly to the dump without a glance,
> >what I call the ‘dark matter’ of awareness, a pattern of system
> >failure. Learning how to turn the book to the only page you actually
> >need to read, or snatch only the one piece of junk mail from
> >the pile with the perfect gift ideas is what counts these days!
> SS: A great gift if you’ve got it!
Hey, why don’t we hand that out for Christmas! It would make the perfect unusual gift for the sophisticated person who has everything else!
……..
> >My way is using the basic 5 step ????.?? ? `?.???? thing.
> >[1??.?? 2.??? 3??? 4? `?. 5?.?? ]
> >I’d say the crossover between maturity and
> >decline is the subtle moment when the stabilizers begin to fail and
> >disordering begins to multiply (the start of step 4).
> SS: This seems to be, in biological systems, a result of
> the per unit mass energy flow having dropped too low for the
> required work of healing.
I thought biologically it had to do with the basic accumulative
structure of systems, that they’re not remade from scratch like new organisms all the time, but repaired, and that no repair is as good as new. There may be measures that indicate when the balance of the effects of that tip or something. Is that what you’re talking about?
……. Maybe it’s meaningful
> >> >to say that
> >> >then the macro-economy would follow micro-economic rules.
> >> >In any case,
> >> >the intent is to have the whole economy run as if it were
> >> >a business
> >> >instead of as a mania.
> >> SS: This, then would require social engineering of some kind,
> >> involving some institutions not avaialable for politictal
> >> footballing, but regulated technocatically instead.
> >
> >Well, I think, knowledge, supported but unregulated.
> >People actually have very sophisticated systems
> >concepts built into normal intelligence, and an
> >appetite for having things make sense. They just
> >don’t know quite what to associate them with in the world
> >around them. For example, I think it’ll become
> >apparent to the world as a whole that
> >the ’smart’ people built civilization according to the
> >natural system model of a bomb, more or less accidentally.
> >Realizing there’s a really gross design flaw causing
> >it to blow up in our faces, that any child will be able
> >to understand, will have other effects. Perhaps people
> >will then get the idea it would be better to think for themselves…?
> SS: Well, I don’t think that future generations will be
> foremost in their minds!
Not automatically, but people do hold rather precious their own heroic images of themselves… No? Their relation to God, their honor and ideals, their great causes, the importance of feeling righteous and respected, trusted, their pride as protector of their mates and children. If it becomes obvious that you have to lie about all that to keep a needless old habit…, I think the needless old habit might cave.
> >One case in point is the universal principles for ’steering’
> >anything
> >reasonably predictable. I happened to spend a couple days canoeing,
> >and was teaching my son how to do it, which gave him pride and
> >confidence. Everyone who steers things knows that making mid-course
> >corrections early in a divergence allows you to make small
> >and graceful
> >adjustments to stay on course, and making them late
> >inevitably produces
> >big, miscalculated and dangerous ones. The problem with the
> >future is
> >we don’t know how to read ahead on the curves, not that we
> >don’t know
> >to steer.
> SS: Actually this is a major scale hierarchy issue –
> the problem of swatting the fly. It has subleties I haven’t
> realized yet. It’s about acceleration limits with scale.
> Your example is nice one. Very good. Semi drivers have to
> train for this apparently, and big ship captains too. Their
> intuitions ought to be consulted.
Big ships are really cool. Knowing how to steer is not automatic, but everyone has the experience and understands the concept. The thermostat can register only the set point, or it can read the rate of approach to it, or it can combine a reading of that rate of approach with the history of esponsiveness of the system in the past, giving you: control
of the scale, 1st & 2nd derivatives. Makes it smooth. For teering complex systems I don’t think people need theories so much as just reasonably reliable curves for them to respond to, each in their own way.
> >No doubt that’s partly because politicians perpetually zoom from one
> >end of the response range to the other, insisting “there is
> >no curve, there is no curve” until disaster approaches and panic sets
> >in. That lets them blame their opponents for it and take credit for
> >saving the day with some horribly mangled response. People know the
‘rocket
> >science’ part already I think, but are largely just getting bad
> >information. They’d do better with the raw data than the
> >self-serving analysis. The wisdom of democracy is that you have
> >a guidance team that can potentially think creatively about
> >problems from every side. They may mostly just need help
> >learning how to read ahead on the curves.
> This works OK when time is unlimited.
Well reading public sentiments and attitudes is not like reading prose, but it has huge and dramatic force, events filtered through the mold of national character, flashing the fierce allegiance and collective disgust, responses to perceived slights and threats and errors of style. Where that stuff seems to exist and how it seems to move and change is
in the common conversation. It’s continually evolving, the product of the intimate public sharing known as private conversation. Everybody talks to everybody intimately, and so all secrets are shared in the code of little smiles and gestures. It’s so cool. And *when* that larger conversation is well informed, things that are out of line with the shared values, if the attitudes of a leader don’t fit that moment’s mold, it’s picked up very quickly, the essence of steering.
The images people have are indeed heavily manipulated, and it does not ‘control’ anyone’s individual behavior, but I think some relevant truth from everyone gets through. People may have all sorts of big and little bad habits, probably enjoy some risky behavior, but I don’t think they share a common value desiring whiplash. The common wisdom is caught in a trap now, thinking that constant proportional change is stable, and
that turns off the steering….
> STAN
> >
> >
> >Phil
> >> STAN
> >….
> >> >Phil
> >> >>
> >> >> >Phil
> >> >> >> STAN
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >Phil
> >> >> >> >> STAN
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> >Phil
> >> >> >> >> >> STAN
> >> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> >> >Cheers,
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> >> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> >> >Phil Henshaw ????.?? ? `?.????
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